With the 2024 Presidential election coming up, you might wonder how it’s influencing the housing market. Let’s dive in.
Temporary Slowdowns in Election Years
Typically, home sales dip slightly each fall. However, data from BTIG reveals that in election years, this dip tends to be a bit more noticeable just before Election Day (see graph below):
Why the hesitation? It comes down to uncertainty. Many people prefer to wait on major purchases, including homes, until election outcomes are clear. This trend is common, especially in the housing market.
This year follows that pattern. Redfin’s recent survey found that 23% of first-time homebuyers are waiting until after the election to make a move—almost a quarter holding off due to uncertainty.
Sales Surge After Elections
The upside? These sales usually bounce back after the election. History shows an increase in home sales 82% of the time in the year following an election, meaning this pause is just temporary (see chart below):
Following elections, both buyers and sellers often gain clarity on what lies ahead, which gives them more confidence to make decisions, resulting in a lift in home sales.
What’s Coming in 2025
Based on past patterns and recent forecasts, 2025 is shaping up to see even more home sales. Current data points to a 4.6 million sales total for this year, with forecasts expecting an increase to 5.2 million next year (see graph below):
This matches the typical pattern of post-election market rebounds.
Though it may seem like the market is slowing down, it’s more of a temporary dip than a permanent trend. Historically, buyers and sellers re-enter the market once election-related uncertainties settle.
Bottom Line
While election years often cause brief slowdowns, these pauses are usually short-lived. Sales aren’t lost, just delayed. Data indicates that home sales generally bounce back after a Presidential election, and 2025 should be no exception. If you’re waiting for more stability, the forecast shows the market is set to pick up soon.